We keep our core long term investment position in gold at all times, but frequently also hold gold and silver trading positions. Our long-standing targets for the trading positions
were $1600-1800 for gold and about $38 for silver (amended to $48-52 on March 4th 2011) before the next major correction. We kept raising stop loss orders as silver surged, and were eventually stopped out of our silver position at $48.25. We
were heavily long gold since late July, and expected it to reach
somewhere in the $1900-2050 (revised) target range between fall 2011 and spring 2012. We
closed out part of our gold position well above $1800
and
fully hedged our remaining precious metals positions
(including miners) when gold was at approximately $1800.
We
previously went long
crude oil
at $80.6 (anticipating a bottom would form near $80),
looking for oil to eventually climb all
the way up to test and potentially break the record high
around $147 (a weekly close above $150 would target
~$200). However, we temporarily closed our
oil position with oil around $113, and are looking to pick it up again at
substantially lower levels when we the uptrend appears to have resumed
(could be months or even a couple years into the future).
Long-term
U.S. Treasury Bonds had a major breakout during the week
ending July 29th and have headed significantly higher as
anticipated; it will take a close below 112 to say with
high confidence that the secular uptrend from 1980 is
over, and that does not look likely in the near future.
U.S.,
European, and many other
equity markets around the world are still in
secular bear markets (most since year 2000). The
S&P 500 Index entered a confirmed cyclical bearish
configuration as stated here on August 5th 2011, indicating that
the cyclical rally from 2009 to 2011 has topped out.
A few months ago, we said that the
support range
for the S&P between 1260-1200 needed to hold, or else most of the world's stock markets
would
likely already have entered
the next cyclical bear market, and that this looked
increasingly likely. With very high probability, this
scenario is unfolding.
We shorted the S&P futures for an approximate 100 point
gain in early August, and re-shorted it at 1226.75 on
August 31st (3.00 points from what might have been the
rally high).
We are also short homebuilders and REITs.
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