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Commodity, Currency, Gold, and Equity Market Analysis by Dr. Christian
Normann |
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clearly see - in a single chart - several years of market
history and important long-term support/resistance levels (that can
significantly affect traders in
all
time-frames).
Please visit the
About Normann Financial
page for important information about risk management and position
sizing. We provide analysis in good faith and to the
best of our ability, but all information on this
website is provided solely for educational purposes and does not
constitute investment advice. Learning to
operate successfully in the financial markets is not easy - it
takes a substantial amount of time, effort, and discipline.
Your trading and investment decisions are
exclusively your own
responsibility. Proper risk management is crucial.
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Summary Update -
August 5th 2011
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We keep our core long term investment position in gold
at all times, but frequently also hold gold and silver trading positions.
Our long-standing targets for the trading positions
have been
$1600-1800 for gold and about $38 for silver (amended to
$48-52 on March 4th 2011) before the next major correction.
We kept raising stop loss orders as silver surged, and
were eventually stopped out of our silver position at $48.25. We currently expect gold to reach $1900-2050
(or higher)
between fall 2011 and spring 2012, and are again heavily long gold
since late July
(but this time against an equal size short position
in the S&P 500 futures contract that roughly represents
the overall stock market). We are also
long some silver, but will quickly close that position
if
silver starts to falter.
We
previously went long
crude
oil
at $80.6 (anticipating a bottom would form near $80),
and are looking for oil to eventually climb all
the way up to test and potentially break the record high
around $147 (a weekly close above $150 would target
~$200). However, we temporarily closed our
oil position around $113, and are looking to pick it up again at
lower levels when we the uptrend appears to have resumed
(could be months into the future).
Long-term U.S. Treasury Bonds
had a major breakout during the week ending July 29th
and appear headed significantly higher for now; it will take a close
below 112 to say with high confidence that the secular
uptrend from 1980 is over.
U.S., European, and many other
equity markets around the world are presumably still in
secular bear markets (most since year 2000). The
S&P 500 Index has entered a confirmed cyclical bearish
configuration as of the August 5th 2011 close, indicating that
the cyclical rally from 2009 to 2011 has topped out.
A few months ago, we said that the
support range
for the S&P between 1260-1200 needed to hold,
or else most of the world's stock markets
would
likely already have entered
the next cyclical bear market, and that this looked
increasingly likely. This now appears to be
happening.
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| Always remember
that proper risk management is essential - without it, you can be
entirely correct regarding the main trend, yet you would still be likely
(nearly certain in fact) to sooner or later blow up your
account. |
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Normann
Financial - Commodity, Currency / Forex, Gold, and Equity Stock
Market Analysis by Dr. Christian Normann Trading Investing
Charts Indicators Volume Equity Bloomberg Yahoo Finance Goldseek
Kitco Gold jsmineset www.jsmineset.com Jim Sinclair Dr.
Christian Norman Dr. Chris Normann Chris Norman Silver Precious
Metals Peak Oil Crude Oil Energy Wind Turbine Solar Power
Alternative Energy Independence Nasdaq NYSE IPO Technology
Future Norman Financial |
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