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Most market historians who understand
the crucial role of a gold standard in preventing reckless
government overspending assume that Greenspan was corrupted
by politics and power, and thus strayed from the convictions
of his younger days. In fact, he did precisely the
opposite of what one would have expected based on the views
he expressed in this essay from 1966.
However, there is an
alternate viewpoint:
After Nixon took the U.S. (and,
by extension, most of the world)
off the gold standard in 1971, perhaps
Greenspan - once he was in charge of the Federal Reserve -
deliberately pursued an ultra-reckless monetary policy in
order to set the world financial system on an irreversible
course toward the proverbial cliff in the belief that the
world would eventually be forced back on a gold standard in
order to stabilize the monetary system after the collapse.
Perhaps Greenspan never did give up on gold?
We'll just have to wait and see
whether a new gold standard emerges within the next few
years. If so, then Greenspan would appear to have
pulled off quite a trick!
Gold and
Economic Freedom
by Alan
Greenspan
Originally Published in Ayn Rand's
"Objectivist" Newsletter in 1966
An almost hysterical antagonism toward
the gold standard is one issue which unites statists of all
persuasions. They seem to sense-perhaps more clearly and
subtly than many consistent defenders of laissez-faire --
that gold and economic freedom are inseparable, that the
gold standard is an instrument of laissez-faire and that
each implies and requires the other.
In order to understand the source of
their antagonism, it is necessary first to understand the
specific role of gold in a free society.
Money is the common denominator of all
economic transactions. It is that commodity which serves as
a medium of exchange, is universally acceptable to all
participants in an exchange economy as payment for their
goods or services, and can, therefore, be used as a standard
of market value and as a store of value, i.e., as a means of
saving.
The existence of such a commodity is a
precondition of a division of labor economy. If men did not
have some commodity of objective value which was generally
acceptable as money, they would have to resort to primitive
barter or be forced to live on self-sufficient farms and
forgo the inestimable advantages of specialization. If men
had no means to store value, i.e., to save, neither
long-range planning nor exchange would be possible.
What medium of exchange will be
acceptable to all participants in an economy is not
determined arbitrarily. First, the medium of exchange should
be durable. In a primitive society of meager wealth, wheat
might be sufficiently durable to serve as a medium, since
all exchanges would occur only during and immediately after
the harvest, leaving no value-surplus to store. But where
store-of-value considerations are important, as they are in
richer, more civilized societies, the medium of exchange
must be a durable commodity, usually a metal. A metal is
generally chosen because it is homogeneous and divisible:
every unit is the same as every other and it can be blended
or formed in any quantity. Precious jewels, for example, are
neither homogeneous nor divisible. More important, the
commodity chosen as a medium must be a luxury. Human desires
for luxuries are unlimited and, therefore, luxury goods are
always in demand and will always be acceptable. Wheat is a
luxury in underfed civilizations, but not in a prosperous
society. Cigarettes ordinarily would not serve as money, but
they did in post-World War II Europe where they were
considered a luxury. The term "luxury good" implies scarcity
and high unit value. Having a high unit value, such a good
is easily portable; for instance, an ounce of gold is worth
a half-ton of pig iron.
In the early stages of a developing
money economy, several media of exchange might be used,
since a wide variety of commodities would fulfill the
foregoing conditions. However, one of the commodities will
gradually displace all others, by being more widely
acceptable. Preferences on what to hold as a store of value,
will shift to the most widely acceptable commodity, which,
in turn, will make it still more acceptable. The shift is
progressive until that commodity becomes the sole medium of
exchange. The use of a single medium is highly advantageous
for the same reasons that a money economy is superior to a
barter economy: it makes exchanges possible on an
incalculably wider scale.
Whether the single medium is gold,
silver, seashells, cattle, or tobacco is optional, depending
on the context and development of a given economy. In fact,
all have been employed, at various times, as media of
exchange. Even in the present century, two major
commodities, gold and silver, have been used as
international media of exchange, with gold becoming the
predominant one. Gold, having both artistic and functional
uses and being relatively scarce, has significant advantages
over all other media of exchange. Since the beginning of
World War I, it has been virtually the sole international
standard of exchange. If all goods and services were to be
paid for in gold, large payments would be difficult to
execute and this would tend to limit the extent of a
society's divisions of labor and specialization. Thus a
logical extension of the creation of a medium of exchange is
the development of a banking system and credit instruments
(bank notes and deposits) which act as a substitute for, but
are convertible into, gold.
A free banking system based on gold is
able to extend credit and thus to create bank notes
(currency) and deposits, according to the production
requirements of the economy. Individual owners of gold are
induced, by payments of interest, to deposit their gold in a
bank (against which they can draw checks). But since it is
rarely the case that all depositors want to withdraw all
their gold at the same time, the banker need keep only a
fraction of his total deposits in gold as reserves. This
enables the banker to loan out more than the amount of his
gold deposits (which means that he holds claims to gold
rather than gold as security of his deposits). But the
amount of loans which he can afford to make is not
arbitrary: he has to gauge it in relation to his reserves
and to the status of his investments.
When banks loan money to finance
productive and profitable endeavors, the loans are paid off
rapidly and bank credit continues to be generally available.
But when the business ventures financed by bank credit are
less profitable and slow to pay off, bankers soon find that
their loans outstanding are excessive relative to their gold
reserves, and they begin to curtail new lending, usually by
charging higher interest rates. This tends to restrict the
financing of new ventures and requires the existing
borrowers to improve their profitability before they can
obtain credit for further expansion. Thus, under the gold
standard, a free banking system stands as the protector of
an economy's stability and balanced growth.
When gold is accepted as the medium of
exchange by most or all nations, an unhampered free
international gold standard serves to foster a world-wide
division of labor and the broadest international trade. Even
though the units of exchange (the dollar, the pound, the
franc, etc.) differ from country to country, when all are
defined in terms of gold the economies of the different
countries act as one -- so long as there are no restraints
on trade or on the movement of capital. Credit, interest
rates, and prices tend to follow similar patterns in all
countries. For example, if banks in one country extend
credit too liberally, interest rates in that country will
tend to fall, inducing depositors to shift their gold to
higher-interest paying banks in other countries. This will
immediately cause a shortage of bank reserves in the "easy
money" country, inducing tighter credit standards and a
return to competitively higher interest rates again.
A fully free banking system and
fully consistent gold standard have not as yet been
achieved. But
prior to World War I, the banking system in the
United States (and in most
of the world) was based on gold and even though governments
intervened occasionally, banking was more free than
controlled. Periodically, as a result of overly rapid credit
expansion, banks became loaned up to the limit of their gold
reserves, interest rates rose sharply, new credit was cut
off, and the economy went into a sharp, but short-lived
recession. (Compared with the depressions of 1920 and 1932,
the pre-World War I business declines were mild indeed.) It
was limited gold reserves that stopped the unbalanced
expansions of business activity, before they could develop
into the post-World War I type of disaster. The readjustment periods were short and the economies quickly
reestablished a sound basis to resume expansion.
But the process of cure was
misdiagnosed as the disease: if shortage of bank reserves
was causing a business decline-argued economic
interventionists -- why not find a way of supplying
increased reserves to the banks so they never need be short!
If banks can continue to loan money indefinitely -- it was
claimed -- there need never be any slumps in business. And
so the Federal Reserve System was organized in 1913. It
consisted of twelve regional Federal Reserve banks nominally owned by private bankers, but
in fact government sponsored, controlled, and supported.
Credit extended by these banks is in practice (though not legally) backed by the
taxing power of the federal government. Technically, we
remained on the gold standard; individuals were still free
to own gold, and gold continued to be used as bank reserves.
But now, in addition to gold, credit extended by the Federal
Reserve banks ("paper reserves") could serve as legal tender
to pay depositors.
When business in the
United States underwent a mild contraction in 1927, the Federal Reserve created
more paper reserves in the hope of forestalling any possible
bank reserve shortage. More disastrous, however, was the
Federal Reserve's attempt to assist Great Britain who had
been losing gold to us because the Bank of England refused
to allow interest rates to rise when market forces dictated
(it was politically unpalatable). The reasoning of the
authorities involved was as follows: if the Federal Reserve
pumped excessive paper reserves into American banks,
interest rates in the United States would fall to a level
comparable with those in Great Britain; this would act to
stop Britain's gold loss and avoid the political
embarrassment of having to raise interest rates.
The "Fed" succeeded; it stopped the
gold loss, but it nearly destroyed the economies of the
world in the process. The excess credit which the Fed pumped
into the economy spilled over into the stock market --
triggering a fantastic speculative boom. Belatedly, Federal
Reserve officials attempted to sop up the excess reserves
and finally succeeded in braking the boom. But it was too
late: by 1929 the speculative imbalances had become so
overwhelming that the attempt precipitated a sharp
retrenching and a consequent demoralizing of business
confidence. As a result, the American economy collapsed.
Great Britain
fared even worse, and rather than absorb the full
consequences of her previous folly, she abandoned the gold
standard completely in 1931, tearing asunder what remained
of the fabric of confidence and inducing a world-wide series
of bank failures. The world economies plunged into the Great
Depression of the 1930's.
With a logic reminiscent of a
generation earlier, statists argued that the gold standard
was largely to blame for the credit debacle which led to the
Great Depression. If the gold standard had not existed, they
argued,
Britain's
abandonment of gold payments in 1931 would not have caused
the failure of banks all over the world. (The irony was that
since 1913, we had been, not on a gold standard, but on what
may be termed "a mixed gold standard"; yet it is gold that
took the blame.) But the opposition to the gold standard in
any form -- from a growing number of welfare-state advocates
-- was prompted by a much subtler insight: the realization
that the gold standard is incompatible with chronic deficit
spending (the hallmark of the welfare state). Stripped of its academic jargon, the welfare state is nothing more than a mechanism by which
governments confiscate the wealth of the productive members
of a society to support a wide variety of welfare schemes. A
substantial part of the confiscation is effected by
taxation. But
the welfare statists were quick to recognize that if they wished to retain political power, the amount of taxation had to be limited and they had to resort to
programs of massive deficit spending, i.e., they had to
borrow money, by issuing government bonds, to finance
welfare expenditures on a large scale.
Under a gold standard, the amount of
credit that an economy can support is determined by the
economy's tangible assets, since every credit instrument is
ultimately a claim on some tangible asset. But government bonds are not backed by tangible wealth, only by the
government's promise to pay out of future tax revenues, and
cannot easily be absorbed by the financial markets. A
large volume of new government bonds can be sold to the
public only at progressively higher interest rates. Thus,
government deficit spending under a gold standard is
severely limited. The abandonment of the gold standard made
it possible for the welfare statists to use the banking
system as a means to an unlimited expansion of credit. They
have created paper reserves in the form of government bonds
which -- through a complex series of steps -- the banks
accept in place of tangible assets and treat as if they were
an actual deposit, i.e., as the equivalent of what was
formerly a deposit of gold. The holder of a government bond
or of a bank deposit created by paper reserves believes that
he has a valid claim on a real asset. But the fact is that
there are now more claims outstanding than real assets. The law of supply and demand is not to be conned. As
the supply of money (of claims) increases relative to the
supply of tangible assets in the economy, prices must eventually rise. Thus
the earnings saved by the productive members of the society
lose value in terms of goods. When the economy's books are
finally balanced, one finds that this loss in value
represents the goods purchased by the government for welfare
or other purposes with the money proceeds of the government
bonds financed by bank credit expansion.
In the absence of the gold
standard, there is no way to protect savings from
confiscation through inflation. There
is no safe store of value. If there were, the government
would have to make its holding illegal, as was done in the
case of gold. If everyone decided, for example, to convert all his bank deposits
to silver or copper or any other good, and thereafter
declined to accept checks as payment for goods, bank
deposits would lose their purchasing power and
government-created bank credit would be worthless as a claim
on goods. The financial policy of the welfare state requires that there be no
way for the owners of wealth to protect themselves.
This is the shabby secret of the
welfare statists' tirades against gold. Deficit spending is simply a scheme for the confiscation of wealth.
Gold stands in the way of this insidious process. It stands
as a protector of property rights. If
one grasps this, one has no difficulty in understanding the
statists' antagonism toward the gold standard.

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